posted by admin on Jul 9

Using a dedicated mortgage calculator, you can sketch out a range of different scenarios and find out roughly how much the payments would amount to with each. For example, if you were looking at variable rate mortgages, and wanted to know how much an interest rate rise of 1% would add to your mortgage payments, then you could simply change the interest rate and re-do the calculation.

While these sums can be done using a normal calculator or a spreadsheet, the online mortgage calculator streamlines the process considerably, doing away with the need for compound interest tables or lengthy equations. This makes the business of working out potential mortgage scenarios a lot quicker and easier to understand.


They can be particularly useful if you are considering switching your mortgage. After a few years, most mortgages revert to something known as the lender’s standard variable rate (SVR) – which is almost always their worst deal by a considerable margin. If your mortgage has reverted to the SVR, you can assess very quickly how much money you could save by switching to a cheaper provider using a mortgage calculator.

Another use for the mortgage calculator is when you are house hunting. If you see a property that you are keen on, you can use the calculator to get an instant estimate of how much your mortgage repayments would be, and how long you would be paying off the mortgage for. This can help to give you a more tangible idea of the price range you should be looking at when buying a property.

The most important thing when taking out a mortgage is that you make sure that you are not over-extending yourself. If your mortgage payments are too high, it can leave you more vulnerable to interest rate rises or other unforeseen expenses. For a guide to how mortgage repayments are calculated.

posted by admin on Jan 19

A concept which you often hear in the USA in connection with the house financing is points. Besides, it concerns around in advance, by end of the house purchase, paid-up interest. point corresponds 1 percent of the loan sum. By the payment from points the interest decreases for mortgage and with it the monthly payments by instalments. Per point the interest is lowered with 30-year mortgage ordinarily about 0,125 percent. As points paid-up amounts of money are tax deductible in the respective year (tax deductible). Here discussed points are also called discount points and are worthwhile, actually, only if one long in the bought house live remains. Anyway they raise the sum of money which one must raise in the beginning in cash as closing costs.

Discount points are used by credit grantors also with pleasure to let look lower the interest rate. The banks recommend a low rate, then can be paid, however, points, so that one pays practically, nevertheless, more interest. If you compare the offers of different financiers, hence, you should pay attention not only to the given interest rate, but also to possible points.

However, the concept points is also used partly if it is about the origination fairy, i.e. around the fee which the credit grantor possibly requires for the supply of the loan. However, these points cannot be set down by the tax and serve merely to raise the profit of the credit grantor.

Ideally you should take out a loan with low interest, nobody points and minimum origination fees (also loan fees called). Compare several offers and choose the most favorable one.

posted by admin on Jan 13

The linked residential building assurance is a special form of the property insurance and protects the building owner against the risks which arise from fire damages, storm damages, hail damages and tap water damages (insured dangers).
The insurance object is the residential building without his contents in movable things (insured thing).
Aim is, on this occasion, the breaking even for reconstruction or renovation of the building as well as a security against other costs (insured costs).

The called risks cover the most frequent damage events. The so-called enlarged or combined elementary damage assurance offers a more comprehensive protection.

A residential building assurance is a contract of insurance and moves therefore juridically within the scope of the civil law code (Civil Code), code of commercial law (HGB) and the contract of insurance law (VVG). Against insurance premium the customer closes a contract at a society. Therefore the individual society terms become a contract component. These conditions divide themselves, on this occasion, for usual as follows:

General residential building assurance terms (VGB) Clauses Special conditions on other elementary risks in the residential building assurance (BEW or BBEW) individual arrangements According to the EU competition right every assurance can determine her conditions since 1994 itself. This considerably complicates the comparability of the single offers.
The general residential building assurance terms were developed according to the following chronology:
General residential building assurance terms in 1962
General residential building assurance terms in 1988
General residential building assurance terms in 2000
General residential building assurance terms in 2008

posted by admin on Nov 20

As used in this chapter:

(A) “Auction” means a method of sale of real or personal property, goods, or chattels, at a predetermined date and time, by means of a verbal exchange, regular mail, telecommunications, the internet, an electronic transmission, or a physical gesture between an auctioneer or apprentice auctioneer and members of the audience or prospective purchasers, the exchanges and gestures consisting of a series of invitations for offers made by the auctioneer and offers by members of the audience or prospective purchasers, with the right to acceptance of offers with the auctioneer or apprentice auctioneer. “Auction” includes a sale of real or personal property, goods, or chattels in which there has been a solicitation or invitation by advertisement to the public for an advance in bidding using sealed bidding, provided that the bids are opened and there is a call for an advancement of the bids.

(B) “Auctioneer” means any person who engages, or who by advertising or otherwise holds the person out as being able to engage, in the calling for, recognition of, and the acceptance of, offers for the purchase of real or personal property, goods, or chattels at auction either directly or through the use of other licensed auctioneers or apprentice auctioneers.

(C) “Apprentice auctioneer” means any individual who is sponsored by an auctioneer to deal or engage in any activities mentioned in division (A) of this section.

(D) “Special auctioneer” means any person who currently is subject to section of the Revised Code.

(E) “Absolute auction” means an auction of real or personal property to which all of the following apply:

(1) The property is sold to the highest bidder without reserve.

(2) The auction does not require a minimum bid.

(3) The auction does not require competing bids of any type by the seller or an agent of the seller.

(4) The seller of the property cannot withdraw the property from auction after the auction is opened and there is public solicitation or calling for bids.

(F) “Reserve auction” means an auction in which the seller or an agent of the seller reserves the right to establish a stated minimum bid, the right to reject or accept any or all bids, or the right to withdraw the real or personal property at any time prior to the completion of the auction by the auctioneer.

(G) “Auction mediation company” means a company that provides a forum through the internet for a person to sell the person’s real or personal property via the submission of silent bids using a computer or other electronic device.

(H) “Public authority” means any board or commission of the state or any officer of such a board or commission, or any political subdivision of the state.

(I) “Estate auction” means the auction of real or personal property of a deceased person.

(J) “Absentee bidding” means a method by which a potential purchaser authorizes a proxy to place on behalf of the potential purchaser a written or oral bid to an auctioneer or auction firm or an agent of an auctioneer or auction firm.

(K) “Person” means an individual, sole proprietor, corporation, limited liability company, association, or partnership.

(L) “Auction firm” means a person who provides auction services.

(M) “Auction services” means arranging, managing, and sponsoring a personal property auction. “Auction services” includes the taking and advertising of personal property on consignment to be sold at auction by a licensed auctioneer.

(N) “Consignee” means a person or auction firm that takes personal property on consignment to be sold at auction by a licensed auctioneer.

(O) “Firm manager” means the individual designated by an auction firm who is responsible for ensuring that the auction firm complies with this chapter.

(P) “Sealed bidding” means a method of submitting a bid in writing by one or more persons following which the bids are opened at an advertised, predetermined time and place, and, after a review of all the bids received, the real or personal property is awarded to the highest and most responsive bidder.

posted by admin on Nov 20

An investment newsletter publisher’s reader and their staff with $ 1,500,000 in financial sanctions have been taken by a U. S. federal judge ruled that they deceived their own in a securities account fraud subscribers.

Judgment in favor of the Securities and Exchange Commission Against Maryland-based Pirate Investor LLC, today Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC, and Frank Porter Stansberry has been exhibited at the U. S. District Court for the District of Maryland on 1 August 2007 to 28 months after the completion of a bench trial. The punishment included the issuance of $ 1.3 million profits and interest from the fraudulent activities of the Pirate Investor and Stansberry bindable are jointly and a fine of more than $ 120,000 against each defendant.

U.S. District Judge Marvin J. Garbis in favor of a third defendant found, Pirate Investor’s parent company, Agora Inc.., Noting that it may not be linked to fraudulent statements made by ICT Branch simply “ICT oles fines of U.S. Judge Porter’s subsidiary Agora hero editor Stansberry $ 1.5 million for securities fraud.

The editor of an investment newsletter and its editor were $ 1.5 million in financial penalties after a U.S. federal judge résoulu they cheated their customers to meet in a securities account fraud.

There are now some sites in web which tries to help people wo are effected from  porter stansberry scam. The judgment in favor of the values ​​and Exchange Commission against the Pirate Investor LLC in Maryland, Stansberry & Associates Investment Research is now called, LLC and Frank Porter Stansberry has been in the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland, first published August 2007 – 28 months after completion of the study of a bank. The set includes the issuance of 1.3 million dollars in profits and interest of the fraudulent activities for which the investor pirates and Stanberry are jointly and severally liable, plus a fine of $ 120,000 against each defendant.

U.S. District Judge Marvin J. Garbis found in favor of a third defendant, the parent company of Pirate Investor, Agora, Inc.., I decide it he could not hold liability for fraudulent statements to his daughter simply “because of his property and ability to to control pirates. ” There was no evidence against Agora, like the Pirates, made false statements directly in question, Judge Garbis ruled.

The SEC had accused of cheating on a “Special Report” Stansberry accused author, under the pseudonym “Jay McDaniel,” the provider of services for the enrichment of uranium exchange-listed USEC, Inc. and an “end of the e-mail” Formidable Initiated Promotion offer “Special Report on the sale, distributed 14th May 2002, after which the investor has sold Pirate Reports

posted by admin on Jul 3

Hedge fund manager Eric Sprott is a star in his profession. In the last ten years, he received a performance of almost 25 percent annually. THE SHAREHOLDERS spoke in New York with David Franklin sprat right hand on the strategy of the fund.

The hedge fund manager Eric Sprott, Toronto manages an estimated nine billion dollars. 20 percent of the money entrusted to him, has lined the 66-year-old with physical gold and silver. The rest is in mining stocks. Especially dear to the heart are the guru young treasure hunters, especially silver companies. Money

SHAREHOLDERS in the interview said David Franklin, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management and Sprott right hand, the fundamentals of strategy, which brought his company to investors in the last ten years, an annual return of almost 25 percent.

THE SHAREHOLDERS: Mr. Franklin, anticipating a personal question: How did you create your own fortune?

David Franklin: My money is mostly found in our hedge funds. Even in our other products, is my ability to mine silver and gold shares as part of the trusts and physical precious metals. My best ideas are reflected in our funds – why should not there be investing my money? An estimated 60 percent of my assets are in silver and 40 percent in gold. In addition, I heard a small part of our agricultural activities. Apart from my house, my money is only in the resources sector. And I do not consider my house as an asset – my family to live somewhere.

Gold is near record highs and silver one recently climbed to a 31-year high, before it forcefully corrected. How long can this trend to continue in your opinion?

I advise you to look at the reasons why precious metals have risen so strongly. The euro zone seems to fall apart. There are record deficits in the U.S.. Around the globe we see liquidity injections into the market. How long now, the ongoing trend for gold and silver? It’s simple: until these issues are resolved. How far are we from the world of balanced budgets? Many, many years are there certainly needed. The positive development of precious metal remains therefore persist for years.

What are your price targets for gold and silver in a year?

We do not report goals. We only say that we have before us an inflationary environment. In this respect should at least keep the precious metals can be adjusted for inflation or write at an all time high. That means gold for a price of $ 2,300 for silver and $ 120 per ounce. Up to this level can climb the precious metals before the cycle ends. Of course, the price trend is not in a straight line instead of up. There will always be corrections. Those are my goals. Then you have to see what happens. Have we solved the record debt? Do we get to grips with the banking problems? Are the budget deficits resolved? Unless all these fires are not processed, the precious metal prices continue to climb.

But some experts are already saying all these problems are reflected in the price of gold, and warn of a bubble. In TV commercials is drummed for gold coins, gold can be bought from vending machines – these are signs of a bubble.

We write a monthly commentary. In January, we analyzed that previously held no substantial flow of money into gold. Although the price of gold is at record levels, the dollar-gold in the river is not even near a high. Exactly this relationship but you can always tell when bubbles like the house or stock boom. In short: The flow of money in gold not support the bubble theory. Foundations and hedge funds have invested less than ten percent of their portfolio in precious metals – there is no bubble.

The demand for silver coins in the U.S. but at a record high.

The turnover of the U. S. Mint Mint is, in fact, on a high, the demand was high. But ask some yourself: How big is the gold portion of your portfolio? Probably like many very, very small.

The stock market is not far away from its all-time high, which he had achieved before the crisis. Dow Jones, S & P 500 and Dow are in good shape. We have just received the worst economic crisis in more than 80 years survived. What is the reason for the good mood?

In an environment of high inflation, rising many stocks. But in relative terms, U.S. investors have not won anything. Consider the rise of dollar shares even before the backdrop of a weak currency. The money printing machines running at full speed, not the real returns are good. Even on a nominal basis, the stock market has virtually not improved in ten years.

The strategy in your hedge fund can be summarized as follows: lots of gold, lots of silver, many early-stage explorer. To the producers make a mature arc. Why?

We focus on exploration company located in an early or middle stages. We see in this area the greatest value for us because the market is not the company can evaluate. There is an ignorance about the way mining companies are technically and economically. If the companies are large enough, then they are mostly fairly valued. But the early phase, that is our expertise. Here we discover the best values.

You get one already, in advance of any official resource estimates, so-called 43-101-report.

We simply do not need this, we have the technical expertise in house. We can look at and say boreholes based on the results, whether with a large probability of a mine is created or not. We look around the world, Africa, Australia, Canada, USA, South America. Most shares are publicly traded in North America, a smaller proportion in Australia and London. Our mines are located, but around the world.

In the past ten years, Eric Sprott nearly 25 percent annual return for its investors retracted. On what is his success?

There are few investors who be shifted in 2000 from Internet stocks to gold. Eric Sprott was one of them. This led to the performance. We are short on the stock market, the banks in short, short, in real estate. We resist on gold, silver, oil, gas and resources. Our advantage is that we can find the right value stocks in the sector.

What happens next with the dollar?

The dollar has been stuck for almost ten years in a permanent crisis. And he will continue to depreciate in the long term. It may be that using a recovery in the short term, but long term I see no improvement. Of course this helps the gold and the silver price.

As you discover all the mining stocks, which are located in your portfolio?

Toronto is the center of the world for the financing of mines. Our office is situated right in the center of everything. We take very many company representatives. Sprott has become a leader in the financing of early-stage exploration companies. So we see the company at the beginning of their existence. Therefore, our returns are fantastic. We employ geologists and mining engineers – we can therefore assess all good. 240 private placements, we have propped in the previous year. This means a deal per day. But we see every day ten times the number of companies and look at everything to the last detail. It is hard work.

posted by admin on Sep 30

When a self-storage customer doesn’t pay their bill, eventually the storage facility will auction off the items they were storing to try to recover their losses and empty out the locker for a new tenant. Thousands of these auctions happen every month in the U.S., and they’re one of the best-kept secrets for buying furniture, appliances, electronics, jewelry—even cars and boats—at rock-bottom prices.

Why? Because the contents of a storage unit are usually auctioned off while they’re still in the locker! The door goes up and the buyers have just a minute to look–without going inside–before the bidding begins. Experienced storage auction buyers have learned the subtle clues that a box-stacked unit is full of very valuable items, and even first-time bidders have bought the occasional $10 pile of junk that turns out to be hiding a gold pocket watch or a valuable painting!

With installment loans, this is at least for the producers or relatv simply making use of independent credit-interest rates. Such providers can easily meet the new requirement. Banks with a credit-dependent scoring, such rates can not post without publishing their scoring. However, this is one of the best kept secrets of the banks, so that they are probably losing any interest in advertising.

posted by admin on Sep 29

Equity risks are underestimated by many investors. Which means both the frequency and the magnitude of losses. This is the gist of an analysis of Welton Investment Corporation, which was released in late August.
Equity risk: Effective vs. theoretical distribution

Tail Risk: the expected and actual returns in the S & P500

Today’s recommendations for investment strategies and patterns of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) are based on normally distributed returns. The expectations that an investor has to comply with its attachments, therefore the Gaussian bell curve. Implicitly, this means that investing in shares should be long-term tendency with a certain regularity on top, as so extreme events at both ends (left and right of the normal distribution “) is equal to and often occur with the same degree. They should therefore be compensated.

Well, the not so. The study mentioned above, this represents very good Welton dar. the data of the S & P500 index from 1960 to June 2010 and investigated the effective distribution of returns (rolling quarterly returns) are shown. The dark blue curve shows the Verteilund the expected return of a normal distribution, while the light blue curve represents the calculated effective rates of return. Clear that very negative returns may result compared to expectations much too often.

I am first time at the reading of Benoit Mandelbrot’s The Misbehaviour of Markets “met with a few facts:

“Theory suggests that over time [1916-2002], there should be fifty-eight days when the Dow moved more than 3.4 percent, in fact there, were 1,001. Theory predicts six days of index swings beyond percent 4.5; in fact three were 366th And index swings of more than 7 percent should come once every 300,000 years, in fact, the twentieth century saw forty-eight hours searching. ”

The case is clear that stock returns are not normally distributed! Stock returns are asymmetrically distributed to the “left”. In other words, losses occur more frequently than expected by the average investor (or better formulated: … as in the software program of asset allocation adviser). And the extent of these losses is often stronger than the average investor expected. There are significant “tail risk”. This applies not only to the S & P500, and not just for stock indices.


As reasons, the many insights from behavioral finance are given. One of the reasons best known example is the fact that the average investor rapid and violent reaction to bad news than to positive. An observed during the financial crisis “flight to quality” is much faster (panic?) Implemented. This is compared to upward trends take place, the regular. Therefore, less violent eruptions on the “right side” of the distribution curve.

What does this mean for investors?

Well, the finding that stock returns are not normally distributed, can have significant consequences for the investor. A single “unexpected” loss rate of 20-30% (ie, significantly less than during the financial crisis in 2008/2009 experienced) can wipe out several years of planned income securities and reduce the capital base for calculating future yields sensitive. A pension plan or a planned asset growth suddenly see a different story. One consequence would be that we suffer the increased probability of loss, even a correspondingly higher expected return sets as a basis. I am not expected in the sense of projected returns, but required returns for the capital provided. Does anyone there .. “dividends” said?

What to do?

Here are a few solutions that can be like the “tail risk” encounter. I’ll keep it short, so, this article not too long is that one or the other but would include in a later article again.

* The equity portfolio may be secured from a certain loss limit. For example, by buying products based on market volatility. Specifically, one would create a “Fund” on the VIX volatility index to the depot or a future sale on the VIX. Of course has the disadvantage that caused so hedging costs and money in your hand must.
* Another way to limit the downside risk of the purchase of put options. Here, too, but the disadvantage is that insurance just costs a premium.
* Some of the all-stock positions (long only) can be supplemented with items which stocks may also shorten (long / short equity). Such funds typically are characterized by high stock betas and high correlations to equity markets, with large setbacks, however, limit the losses. We are talking about hedge funds and I would urge restraint and caution. So captivating, the (sales) presentations of hedge funds also run so often disappointing results.
* Another approach may be to choose an asset manager who is not tied too closely to a benchmark. One can therefore attempt to “portray benchmark each other objectives such as disabling one hand and” get performance “on the other hand, alleviate somewhat.

And now? What brought you this article? How do you react to an investor?

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Tagged as: normal distribution, distribution of returns, tail risk, VIX, Volatility Index

(7 comments … read them below or add one)

Hugi September 20, 2010 at 07:32

finally someone speaks to this taboo subject. excellent blog. Thank you!
rwilli September 20, 2010 at 08:04

Thank you, thank Hugi, thank you. Have I thought so that you will like this skewed distribution. – But from now on the treadmill … ;-)
Uwe September 20, 2010 at 13:19

Yes, very good post!

Why is this really “taboo”? Is that it? Actually the whole thing is just a mathematical simplification to assume the risk model instead of a Levy-distribution, a Gaussian distribution. And then sometimes it goes bad wrong.

However, there are a lot of literature about, for example, in addition to the introductory book by Mandelbrot example the book “Why Stock Markets Crash” by D. Sornette, where he was in Chapter 3, almost 40 markets (global indices, forex, gold, stocks) analyzed for this “fat tails”, and of course, everywhere there. N. Taleb’s Black Swan writes only books about this phenomenon.

Interestingly, even the equations of the typical online warrant calculator obviously built on the Gaussian distribution (see eg Chapter 7 in Wilmott’s book “W. Introduces Quantitative Finance”).

And what can be done, however as an investor?

It is probably the best thing to look for a fund that creates its risk models with “fat-tail models. How to get to this information, however, I know, unfortunately not. Short ETFs are probably not a good idea (see, for example – Beta slippage). When VIX you must go out soon after the crash because the crash soon after the falls again, this is rather for people with trading experience.

I’m just an interested lay person – I would be very interested in how much people think about the subject and the into account.


posted by admin on Sep 29

There are some magazines about e-commerce. These Magazines are providing daily business, technology and e-commerce news, as well as investing, money, marketing, research, company news and information. .. Everything you need to know about doing business money on the Internet. Provides e-commerce news, opinion, feature articles, and special reports.

The news of 13.09.2010 on “PE expansion and contraction of PE” I have again drawn to the fascinating 17.6-year cycle in the equity markets. Now I got a similarly impressive Chart on U.S. interest rates into their hands.

20100923 Interest Zyklus60 60 year cycle of interest rates.

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The graph (click for full size), the USD interest shows since the mid-18th Century. It is not the interest of U.S. government bonds but are ready to buy corporate bonds with very good credit quality. Very impressive, as all occurring thirty years, a turnaround in interest rates.

However, and here we are again back in 2010, is also clear that a turnaround in interest rates for several years if not can take a decade. You have to be a prophet then to determine the potential interest in the area is slowly exhausted. But why put the same on rising interest rates, makes no sense. The global interest rates can persist for a long time on the current low level. Who controls the duration too short, paid for – depending on the steepness of the yield curve – a significant opportunity cost.

Chart: McClellan Financial Publications

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posted by admin on Sep 29

the last week has aroused quite a stir, the new all-time high in gold. In the article “8 tips on how to invest in Gold” I Others noted that the long-time gold uptrend has now ignited the phase II. This phase is characterized by increased attention in (mass) media, widespread interest and a variety of new products. However, the basic message remains skeptical. One wonders whether the top is now achieved and whether you would rather not be the godfather of the 20th should sell birthday Goldvreneli obtained. Generally, in the 2nd Phase of an uptrend much talked about (on gold, stocks, diamond, tulip bulbs – you name it), but there are very few really invested and positioned in the market. I like to repeat the question from last week: Who is in your circle of friends really invested in gold?

In this regard, I found last week was a remarkable image.

20091013 gold analysts are not so bullish, this gold analyst …

The figure shows the Progonosen all Wall Street analysts shows for the price of gold. From now until 2013. Not that I’d bet even a damn to such forecasts, but they show a reserved, skeptical picture.

The average gold price forecast for the end of 2009 is $ 960 per ounce. Then see the Anlayst a price increase to $ 1,000 in the third quarter of 2010. This will highlight the already high, because then the predictions consistently downward. Down up to $ 800 by end of 2013.

Very good. This leaves room open for further rate increases, even if these violent phase of consolidation and setbacks (“tests of courage”) will be accompanied. You can assume that the “Golden Bull” will do anything to take a minimum of investors. They say not for nothing that a Bull Market is a “wall of worry” will come forth.

The correct behavior in such ‘a Bull Market? Buy-and-hold, no profit taking, no trading, buy-the-dips.

When the bull market will end? If the same analyst (see above) revise their forecasts upwards again and again and finally with spectacular price targets on offer (Did someone “Dow 36,000″ say?). If there is agreement in the mass is that it is in gold – apart from a few “welcome consolidation” – can only go up.